Surprise QBs in 2008

Year to year, fantasy football (and the sport itself) has its big time producers. There are a few guys that make this list every year: Brady, P. Manning, Romo, and Brees. There are some that seldom make this list, but you can still count on to put up solid numbers: E. Manning, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, and McNabb. There are, of course, other names that could make either one of these lists and you may also argue that some of the ones I mentioned should be switched around. I don't really care. What I am interested in is the quarterbacks that sneak up on us. The ones that come out of nowhere and put up big numbers. I am about to do my best to pin point who these guys might be this year. Inevitably, I will probably be more wrong than right. But what's the fun in always being right?



Now, I am not and would never claim to be very intelligent when it comes to this kind of thing. But I am not stupid, either. I went through every team in the NFL, looked at their starting quarterback (or quarterbacks), and narrowed it down from there. First thing I did was throw out all of the guys who always put up big numbers. Soon after them were the guys who put up predictable numbers year to year and I saw no reason for this to change. That left me with about half the quaterbacks in the league. Some, I feel will surprise. Others, will suck.



There were a few different factors that I looked at when considering if a quarterback would make my prestigious "Surprise QB" list. First and foremost, I looked at and changes to the team around them. This is huge. After that, I also looked at coaching changes and any significant growing experience they may have had recently. Lastly, and this was sometimes the deciding factor, I weighed in whether I liked their name, their haircut, or the team they play for. Ok not really. But seriously....



Here's what I came up with:

David Garrard- After being handed the starting job a mere 8 days before week 1 last season, he got of to a slow start (at least fantasy wise). After missing 3 games, he put up 15 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions in his last 8 starts. That's not too shabby in my opinion. Add a year of experience, including 2 playoff games, and Jerry Porter, who's career is on the rise after finally escaping the black hole of talent that is Oakland, and you have the potential for a big season. Also, there are no major changes that cause concern on a team that went 12-4 last season and made it to the second round of the playoffs.

Matt Schaub- Am I really predicting a big season from anything (or anyone) out of Houston?! Yes, indeed I am. And here's why. Andre Johnson and Schaub played 4 games together last year. Schaub threw 7 TDs and only 3 INTs in those games. He also averaged over 250 yds/game. These are nowhere near his stats for the rest of the season. Well, guess what. They are both healthy now and as far as I'm concerned, they're is no reason to expect that to change. So for now, big expectations from this guy.

Aaron Rogers- Ok, so this guy has little to no experience. Fine. He hasn't shown anything worth mentioning so far in the pre-season. Fine. It doesn't matter. Rogers steps in to one of the most productive offenses from last season, an offense that hasn't seen much change other than Favre. That helps...a lot. They have one of the best young backs in the game in Ryan Grant. Defenses are going to be forced to focus on the run. That helps...more. And lets be honest, this guy must have some serious tools if Green Bay was willing to pass on the return of one of the greatest players to ever play the game.

Matt Ryan- Here's my stretch. And I realize it's a big one, a really big one. Am I predicting that this guy has huge numbers this year? Absolutely not. But I am predicting that he will surprise. After all, that is the title of this post. My prediction is that Ryan will have the starting job all to himself by week 8, the week after their bye week, at the latest. He will play some in every game before that, and could secure the starting job earlier. Here's why. The Falcons are terrible. They are still going to be terrible this year. Redman is not their long time starter and everyone knows that. They are not going to be able to keep the number 1 draft pick and future of the franchise off the bench. Don't give me all of this "he's not ready" stuff. Experience is experience. They have absolutely nothing to lose. Two other reasons: Roddy White. He became the go to receiver last season and will only improve on his 1200 yds and 6 TDs. And Michael Turner. He gives the offense something they haven't had recently, a potential game changer at running back. This will all help Matt Ryan. Maybe, just maybe, I'll look like a genius (or Genus 5 for Michael) in about 5 months.

That's all I got...cheers!