Target and Avoid for 2008 Football Draft

Alright, I guess it is my turn. I am gonna give you fellas some people to avoid and target in your 2008 football draft.

AVOID

Matt Forte- Daaa Bears are simply awful. Their best player is a return man… enough said. They haven’t had a QB in a decade. Their defense is falling apart since the Super Bowl appearance. With that kind of team and environment it will take a couple of years until he can have a chance to be successful. He will get his touches, but when you can get Deuce, Ricky Williams, or Fred Taylor around the same pick there is no reason to draft him.

Ronnie Brown- Knees are important… too important for where this dude is going. I know about his first couple of weeks last year and the addition of Pennington. Blah Blah Blah! I also know that knees help you run, not to mention that Ricky Williams’ preseason has been note worthy.

Steve Smith- He is out two weeks of the season. That, right there, should put up a yellow flag. Jake Delhomme had elbow surgery…. red flag.

The first TE drafted- If the difference between Dallas Clark and Chris Cooley is gonna make or break your team, you need to reevaluate your draft strategy.

Peyton Manning- This is more of a preference than anything else. When you can draft a premiere RB/WR and get Brees a round or two later, I see no reason to Peyton. When you commit to drafting Peyton you forego a top tier WR or 2^nd tier RB. I just believe you can get an equivalent QB when you forego Peyton.

Target

Drew Brees- Bush, Colston, Shockey, Meachem

Matt Schaub- what peter said. With a healthy Andre Johnson we can expect good things… not great but good.

Ryan Grant- 7 TDs in his last 6 games. Limitless upside potential alongside no Brett Favre will result in a more active role. Unfortunately it is hard to target a first round draft pick.

Colston/Shockey- Some people believe that these two will take away from each other, but I completely disagree. I think that Shockey will benefit from a QB used to Antonio Gates and a creative Sean Peyton. Colston will benefit from shockey dragging DB’s over the middle.

Jericho Cotchery- With Favre as your QB somebody has gotta go for the long ball. You can probably sneak this pick by most of your league.

Limas Sweed- A 6’4” freak athlete who Big Ben has been begging for. A good sleeper if you are looking for a cheap WR late in the draft.

Surprise QBs in 2008

Year to year, fantasy football (and the sport itself) has its big time producers. There are a few guys that make this list every year: Brady, P. Manning, Romo, and Brees. There are some that seldom make this list, but you can still count on to put up solid numbers: E. Manning, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, and McNabb. There are, of course, other names that could make either one of these lists and you may also argue that some of the ones I mentioned should be switched around. I don't really care. What I am interested in is the quarterbacks that sneak up on us. The ones that come out of nowhere and put up big numbers. I am about to do my best to pin point who these guys might be this year. Inevitably, I will probably be more wrong than right. But what's the fun in always being right?



Now, I am not and would never claim to be very intelligent when it comes to this kind of thing. But I am not stupid, either. I went through every team in the NFL, looked at their starting quarterback (or quarterbacks), and narrowed it down from there. First thing I did was throw out all of the guys who always put up big numbers. Soon after them were the guys who put up predictable numbers year to year and I saw no reason for this to change. That left me with about half the quaterbacks in the league. Some, I feel will surprise. Others, will suck.



There were a few different factors that I looked at when considering if a quarterback would make my prestigious "Surprise QB" list. First and foremost, I looked at and changes to the team around them. This is huge. After that, I also looked at coaching changes and any significant growing experience they may have had recently. Lastly, and this was sometimes the deciding factor, I weighed in whether I liked their name, their haircut, or the team they play for. Ok not really. But seriously....



Here's what I came up with:

David Garrard- After being handed the starting job a mere 8 days before week 1 last season, he got of to a slow start (at least fantasy wise). After missing 3 games, he put up 15 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions in his last 8 starts. That's not too shabby in my opinion. Add a year of experience, including 2 playoff games, and Jerry Porter, who's career is on the rise after finally escaping the black hole of talent that is Oakland, and you have the potential for a big season. Also, there are no major changes that cause concern on a team that went 12-4 last season and made it to the second round of the playoffs.

Matt Schaub- Am I really predicting a big season from anything (or anyone) out of Houston?! Yes, indeed I am. And here's why. Andre Johnson and Schaub played 4 games together last year. Schaub threw 7 TDs and only 3 INTs in those games. He also averaged over 250 yds/game. These are nowhere near his stats for the rest of the season. Well, guess what. They are both healthy now and as far as I'm concerned, they're is no reason to expect that to change. So for now, big expectations from this guy.

Aaron Rogers- Ok, so this guy has little to no experience. Fine. He hasn't shown anything worth mentioning so far in the pre-season. Fine. It doesn't matter. Rogers steps in to one of the most productive offenses from last season, an offense that hasn't seen much change other than Favre. That helps...a lot. They have one of the best young backs in the game in Ryan Grant. Defenses are going to be forced to focus on the run. That helps...more. And lets be honest, this guy must have some serious tools if Green Bay was willing to pass on the return of one of the greatest players to ever play the game.

Matt Ryan- Here's my stretch. And I realize it's a big one, a really big one. Am I predicting that this guy has huge numbers this year? Absolutely not. But I am predicting that he will surprise. After all, that is the title of this post. My prediction is that Ryan will have the starting job all to himself by week 8, the week after their bye week, at the latest. He will play some in every game before that, and could secure the starting job earlier. Here's why. The Falcons are terrible. They are still going to be terrible this year. Redman is not their long time starter and everyone knows that. They are not going to be able to keep the number 1 draft pick and future of the franchise off the bench. Don't give me all of this "he's not ready" stuff. Experience is experience. They have absolutely nothing to lose. Two other reasons: Roddy White. He became the go to receiver last season and will only improve on his 1200 yds and 6 TDs. And Michael Turner. He gives the offense something they haven't had recently, a potential game changer at running back. This will all help Matt Ryan. Maybe, just maybe, I'll look like a genius (or Genus 5 for Michael) in about 5 months.

That's all I got...cheers!

Draft Day

The Champions' Breakfast was a great success. Thanks to past champions ReimTeam, LT, and David Duffey for making our annual event the best we've ever had. Plans are already being put together for next year's breakfast. Hope to see you there.

We are getting the league back together!

On Sunday, some of us talked a little bit about starting up a blog for the 12 of us. The idea is that we can use this as another place to talk about fantasy sports or just sports in general. For that matter, I guess we can post about whatever the heck we want to post about. We love to talk/argue/discuss sports and this could be a way for us to do that while we are not in Mobile. It could be really fun or it could be a flop, but I figured there's no harm in giving it a shot. My hope is that some of you more witty, knowledgable people will make up for my posts which are sure to be humorless and naive.

So....that being said, I guess we'll just see where this takes us!